Which Way Do We Go Now, George?

When trying to decern trends it's important to know where the herd is going. If you are in the way you can get trampled. If you don't keep up you'll be left behind. And if you follow too closely you can get hurt. Herds tend to run themselves off of cliffs.

In order to see what's next you need to get multiple viewpoints. Not just the insular ones from your day to day world.

"All models are wrong and that's why you want a diversity of models." - Scott Page, Social Scientis from the University of Michigan.

"You're never going to get correct calls from the mainstream. It's not even possible." - Peter Schiff, Owner of Euro Pacific Capital.

Notes:
1. Quotes taken from June 1 issue of Time magazine. p48.

Automative Innovation

Innovation doesn't usually happen with a bang. Usually it's more a boiling frog type of thing. You don't notice things change because they happen slowly. It's just a little warmer, that's all.

Case in point is an ad that I heard on the radio today from Ford. Ford dealers are now offering to sell tires to any make of car. Not that surprising a departure from what they already do given the need for cash. But dealers no longer see other car makes as evil.

This opens up a whole new arena from which dealers can spring board. They can also offer car repair or car detailing. This shifts their market from people who want to buy and service Fords to people who want to buy and service cars.

Another shift that the tire change represents is the fundamental relationship change between the dealerships and the car maker. The car makers just don't have as much leverage as before. In years past it would have been considered heresy for a Ford dealer to engage with another make. Now it's considered smart business.

With the relationship changing the car makers begin to lose leverage with their distribution chain. Could we see car dealerships with the power of Wal-Marts? With slotting fees for the front parking spots?

Memorial Day

Thanks.

American Cemetery in France: Link

That Stupid Consumer

The 2009 Mt. Gretna Triathlon is this weekend. The swim is at a private lake club (more of a pond really) and the race director, in addition to a couple of e-mails, had to post this on the website at the prompting of the club owners.

**URGENT** This is a reminder that competitors are not permitted on the Mt Gretna Lake property before race day. The lake and associated land are private property and you will be trespassing. I ask that you please adhere to these guidelines to avoid any issues that could be imposed on Got the Nerve. Your cooperation is greatly appreciated and we look forward to seeing you in May.


Why would the club chase people away? Obviously they want to come to you. They are making a choice to put aside everything else in life to come to your facility. Charge them for it.

Why not host training swims? You could charge $10 for the privilege of swimming in a pond in May. Charge another $10 for the bike ride after.

Additionally you gain free exposure to your facility. If the racers have a good experience at your place they will want to come back. AND GIVE YOU MORE MONEY.

Whale Facts

Things that quite possibly only interest me...

But I Went To College
Between 2002 and 2007, according to government data, the inflation-adjusted hourly wage for men ages 25 to 35 with bachelor's degrees (and no graduate degrees) fell 4.5%. For the typical woman, inflation-adjusted wages fell 4.8%.1

Since less than 1/2 of people who go to college graduate, maybe there are better options? Shouldn't colleges do something about this?

Quick: Where Does Rice Come From?
Nearly 85% of the rice consumed in the U.S. is grown by farmers in Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.2

Yeah, But You Have to Live In Norway
Norway’s economy grew last year by just under 3 percent. The government enjoys a budget surplus of 11 percent and its ledger is entirely free of debt. Norwegians work the fewest hours of the citizens of any industrial democracy.3

Notes:
1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124181970915002009.html
2. http://www.successrice.com/en-us/content/861/AboutOurRice.aspx
3 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/business/global/14frugal.html?_r=1&hp

My Half Time Pep Talk For 2009

Between June 22, 1941 and July 3, 1941 the Russian Army had 600,000 troops killed, missing, captured or wounded. 1

In the 1300's the black plague killed between 25-50 million people, or roughly half of Europe.2

At least 618,000 Americans died during the Civil War.3

In recorded human history things have been much much worse than they are now.

In fact, in comparison to how things were before, things are getting better. Worldwide life expectancy has risen from 31 years in 1900 to 67 years today.4 What's more chronic hunger has declined, annual incomes have increased, and the use of child labor has decreased.

So, with the current global recession all is not lost. In fact we're doing pretty good.

But we can, and will, do better.

The Banking Mess Will Get Straightened Out
Every day that passes without financial collapse is a day of success. Things got so shaky (and we'll learn this over the next 10 years) that the whole global financial shebang almost went boom. The really smart guys on Wallstreet have quarantined the bad sausage and are figuring out how to cut out the good parts.

The Economy Will Start Right Sizing
The economy was sized on people's ability to buy. They ability was financed on easy credit, but those days are over. With the credit bubble popped 60% of credit card companies are lowering credit lines of non-prime borrowers.5 We do not have to worry about too much free money in the economy. This helps to dampen inflation (remember that) and will help to size the economy to what people can afford.

Capitalism Is Still The Best Growth Engine
In terms of all the options available (fascism, communism, socialism, feudalism, tribalism) capitalism is the the best system humans have invented in order to grow and distribute wealth. It's the best system, but by no means perfect, because it allows the largest percentage of the population to participate in the economic growth. Capitalism doesn't end because of the current economic malaise.

The fundamentals of what's gone right over the last two hundred years of human history have not changed. In fact, because we are so intertwined they are more important then ever. Now that we've survived the shock of early 2009 we can go about the work rebuilding.


Notes:
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
3. http://www.civilwarhome.com/casualties.htm
4. http://www.reason.com/news/show/119252.html
5. http://debtprison.net/wordpress/273/credit-card-companies-reducing-credit-lines/

Image via englishrussia

Bad Design Files

I can't remember the brand name but it was no fun cleaning up the rice from the exploded bag in the microwave.

Beverage Innovation

The thing about innovation is that the truly innovative things are somewhat of a bewilderment to the average consumer.

Case in point a tall boy (24oz) of Bud Light and Clamato. Clamato is a mixture of tomato juice, clam juice and sugar. Bud Light being the beer.

According to the release Anheuser-Busch launched this in early 2008 nationwide in a tribute to the tastes of the Mexican population.

Personally it doesn't sound like a good idea. But what do I know? And that's the point. Innovative things don't always seem like a good idea at first. It's when they become a screaming success that everyone says that they knew it all along

Not All That Is New Is Good

According to an article in USAToday traditional pension plans accounted as the sole savings plan for 62% of workers. Today 63% of workers are covered solely by 401k plans.

It seems that not all of the bugs in these 401k's have been fully worked out. According to the Wall Street Journal some funds are denying withdrawal requests from their investors in order to avoid a liquidity risk. (Link)

People are being denied access to their own money.

It seems as if the American cultural landscape is getting prepped for some major political changes. People are getting older, the social security safety net is considered insolvent, the government just spent a whole bunch of money it didn't have, and now funds are withholding returning the money given to them.

As we continue to feel the effects of the recession through 2012 expect to see continued populist sentiment if the current trends continue.

The Story of Brian Fisher

Brian Fisher wanted to be an scout for the National Football League.

The problem was that Brian had a degree in finance, was working as a financial analyst, had no connections in college or pro-football, and had last played football himself in high school.

Today Brian is a scout for the Buffalo Bills.

His journey is the result of hard work. For five years Brian worked two jobs. The first one paid the bills. The second one was for Brian's passion. Brian would come home every night and write up scouting reports based on the football games he had taped.

He then sent detailed reports, unsolicited, to NFL teams. Each report was tailored to the needs of that specific team. He did this for five years.

No one showed him how to break down film. No one showed him how to write a report. He had no contacts that paved the way for him. Brian had a ton of valid excuses but he chose not to use them.

Hard work doesn't guarantee success. Career paths are littered with wrecks of hard working people. Hard work is necessary for success. I have yet to see a senior executive yet who does not put in the hours. If you want to rise through the ranks you have to be willing to put in the hours.

Much of the conversation on Innovation focuses on new schemes and techniques. There is always something bright and new and flashy. Rather much of the success due to Innovation is due to hard work, which is much less glamorous than the latest fad but will yield much greater results.

Innovation Zen

Employee Commitment Takes More Than Money
Case in point is the Dallas Cowboys. The team charter left late for road games five times in the 2008 season1. They play eight road games. They are millionaires.

Good Quote
"Hard is not hopeless" - Gen. David Petraeus

Big Innovations Happen in Small Steps
Most of the time the really really big things gestate so slowly that we don't notice they are happening. Medical research (human genome mapping, brain imaging) and computer science are prime examples. Case in point is a computer in England that made discoveries by itself (link). While we haven't entered the age of the Matrix, tomorrow's computers will not look like today's.

Details Still Matter
A majority of the time the small details are inconsequential because they are caught and fixed or the fall out is not that bad. However, more often than you think, the stars align and a small detail that is left unchecked has large unintended consequences. In PA for example, a local school district sold $46,000 classroom trailers for a dollar.2



Notes:
1http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/012009dnspocowlede.3f77524.html
2 http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/odd/40722597.html?elr=KArksDyycyUtyycyUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

The 24 Hours of Innovation Event

The folks over at the BoardofInnovation are hosting The 24 Hours of Innovation event on 5/16.

Throughout the day the site will be publishing the latest trends in innovation. Follow the updates to learn how to add innovation to your company during these tough times.

Grassroots Innovation will be participating with a "Half Time Pep Talk for 2009."